Threat Assessment

Flight Time Estimates

Estimated flight times for Iranian ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones from known launch zones to Tel Aviv and key Israeli targets. Based on published weapon specifications and great-circle distances.

This content is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Flight time estimates are based on publicly available specifications and simplified trajectory models. Actual flight times vary based on trajectory, altitude, and environmental factors.

Weapon Platform Speeds

Ballistic Missiles
Mach 8–12
~2,700–4,100 m/s
Emad, Kheibar Shekan, Fattah-2, Khorramshahr-4
Cruise Missiles
Mach 0.7–0.9
~240–310 m/s
Paveh, Hoveyzeh
Attack Drones
~185 km/h
~51 m/s
Shahed-136, Shahed-238

Warning Time Scenarios

How much time does Israel have between launch detection and impact? It depends on two variables: which missile Iran fires and where they fire it from. The quadrant below shows the four boundary scenarios — from the absolute worst case to the most favourable.

Closer launch site Farther launch site
Worst Case
—
Fast + Far
—
Slow + Close
—
Best Case
—
Context: A commercial jet takes roughly 30 minutes to board. An F-35 scramble takes ~5–8 minutes from alert. The worst-case scenario gives defenders less time than it takes to brew a cup of coffee. Even the best case — the slowest ballistic from the farthest point — offers under 10 minutes of total warning.

Flight Time Matrix — To Tel Aviv

Launch Zone Distance Ballistic Missile Cruise Missile Drone

Comparative Flight Times — Western Iran to Tel Aviv

The speed difference between weapon types defines the interception window. Ballistic missiles arrive in minutes; drones take hours.

Flight Simulation

Simultaneous Launch Simulation

T+00:00

Flight Times to All Israeli Targets

Ballistic missile flight times from Western Iran to various Israeli targets. Distance affects arrival by seconds to minutes for ballistic missiles, but hours for drones.

Target Region Distance BM Time CM Time Drone Time