OSINT Dashboard

Situation overview, key trends, pattern analysis, and strategic outlook for Operation True Promise 4.

Updated periodically as data evolves — check generation date for currency.

AI-GENERATED This situation report was automatically generated by AI from structured OSINT data. It has not been reviewed or verified by a human analyst. Provided for informational purposes only.
Last Updated -- -- Data through --

Situation at a Glance

ONGOING
Status
Active operations
--
Total Salvos
TP4
--
Days Active
Since 28 Feb 2026
--
Countries Targeted
3
IRGC Branches
Aerospace, Navy, Ground
--
Cluster Munition Salvos
Confirmed use
Bottom Line Up Front

True Promise 4 has evolved over 18 days and 72 documented salvos from a conventional ballistic missile opening salvo into a multi-branch, multi-domain campaign. The operation shows a deliberate phased escalation: volume first, then multi-branch operations, then advanced systems (Fattah hypersonic, Khorramshahr-4), then proxy activation. Wave 28 targeted NATO member Turkey — the first direct strike on NATO territory. 13 countries have been targeted across 72 salvos, with 17 confirmed cluster warhead uses. The conflict has resulted in 19 fatalities and 125 injuries. Coalition defences maintain high interception rates but face mounting strain. The campaign shows no signs of concluding.

Cluster Munition Tracking

Iran has deployed cluster munition warheads on ballistic missiles — confirmed in combat for the first time.

--
Salvos with cluster warheads
--
First confirmed use
--
Delivery systems

Ballistic Missiles (Est.)

--

    Drones (Est.)

    --

      Key Trends

      Surge-Pause-Surge Rhythm

      • Day 2 peak: 6 salvos in 24 hours (shock & awe)
      • Days 4–6: deliberate lull, 2–3 salvos/day
      • Days 7–8: second surge, sustained bombardment
      • Day 9: resumed pressure, geographic re-expansion

      Weapon Sophistication Ladder

      • Days 1–2: Emad/Ghadr + Shahed swarms
      • Day 2: Kheibar Shekan (solid-fueled) introduced
      • Day 3: Fattah-2 hypersonic first use
      • Day 4: Khorramshahr-4 heavy ballistic
      • Days 5–18: Cluster warheads (17 salvos)
      • Day 9: "New generation missiles" (unverified)

      Geographic Contraction → Re-Expansion

      Days 1–2 targeted 9–11 countries (mass saturation). Mid-operation narrowed to 2 countries. Day 9 re-expanded to Turkey (NATO) — the first direct strike on a NATO member in this conflict.

      Multi-Branch & Proxy Operations

      • Aerospace Force: Majority of 72 salvos
      • IRGC Navy: 3 salvos (Day 4)
      • IRGC Ground Force: 1 salvo (Day 5, first ever)
      • Proxies (Day 8): Hezbollah, Iraqi factions, Houthis

      Daily Salvo Count

      Surge-pause rhythm across TP4

      Weapon Mix by Day

      BM / CM / Drone per day
      ASSESSMENT Very Likely
      TP4 demonstrates deliberate phased escalation within a single operation — opening with volume, broadening to multi-branch, introducing advanced systems, then activating proxies. This sequencing appears planned rather than reactive.

      Patterns & Anomalies

      Inter-Salvo Timing

      Red bars exceed mean + 1.5σ (anomalous gaps)

      Launch Hour Distribution (UTC)

      Nighttime clustering visible

      Geographic Expansion

      Cumulative countries targeted

      Escalation Staircase

      Cumulative new countries + new weapons

      Detected Anomalies

      • Ghost salvos (18 & 20): Missing timing data — possibly EW, decoy launches, or data-denial operations.
      • Salvo 29 "new generation missiles": IRGC self-designation with no independent confirmation. Open analytical question.
      • Drone usage decline: Consistent with US 83% attrition claim. Salvo 28 deployed zero drones (Fattah-2 only).

      Outlook & Forecasts

      Speculative Analysis — these projections are extrapolated from observed patterns and are inherently speculative.

      Tempo Trend with Projection

      Dashed line = linear regression extrapolation

      What to Watch

      • Continued pressure likely. Linear regression suggests 2–3 salvos/day near-term.
      • NATO/Turkey targeting is the critical escalation threshold. A repeat would trigger formal NATO response.
      • Advanced munitions (Fattah-2, Khorramshahr-4, cluster BMs) will remain primary for high-value targets.
      • Proxy tempo. Whether Hezbollah, Iraqi factions, and Houthis sustain Day 8 activation level is a key indicator.
      • Defence sustainability. 18+ days of sustained intercept demand creates stockpile pressure.
      • "New generation" claim (Salvo 29) requires independent verification.
      ASSESSMENT Likely
      TP4 shows no indicators of winding down. The phased escalation pattern suggests a pre-planned campaign with additional phases yet to be executed. Coalition interceptor sustainability and proxy coordination are the key variables to monitor.

      Defence Effectiveness

      • Rate variability: Some salvos show interception below 80% — occasional saturation.
      • Sustained demand: 18+ days of continuous ops creates unprecedented strain on Arrow-3 and THAAD stockpiles.
      • Hypersonic challenge: Fattah-2 has unpredictable glide path, complicating traditional BMD.
      • Ghost salvos: 18 & 20 may indicate EW or decoys that degraded tracking.
      ASSESSMENT Likely
      Coalition defences are performing effectively but face increasing strain. Interceptor stockpile management is likely becoming a strategic concern.

      Quick Links

      SITREPs Visualizations Interactive Maps Data Table Reports Archive Timeline
      Dashboard auto-generated from structured OSINT data. Last data sync: --