SITREP — March 06, 2026

• Israeli defence systems confirmed intercepting missiles from all three waves. No injuries reported in Israel from Waves 21–23.
• IDF Home Front Command issued shelter directives three times during the day corresponding to each wave, with the first alert at 05:30 IST.
• Israeli bomb disposal teams continued clearing unexploded cluster submunitions from Wave 20 and Wave 21 impact sites in central Israel.
• US CENTCOM forces at Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar) and Al Dhafra Air Base (UAE) directly targeted in Wave 22; defensive posture escalated across all Gulf installations.
• USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group continued operations in the region.
• Coalition air defence coordination tested across six simultaneous target countries in Wave 23 — the widest single-wave geographic spread in the True Promise series.

• Wave 21 (03:30 UTC / 05:30 IST): Codename "Ya Mu'izz al-Mu'minin" — Kheibar Shekan cluster missiles and suicide drone swarms targeting Tel Aviv. Designed to saturate multi-layered air defences. IRGC claims submunitions rendered Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow largely ineffective (unverified).
• Wave 22 (11:30 UTC / 13:30 IST): Codename "Ya Hossein ibn Ali" — First deployment of Khorramshahr-4 heavy BMs (~1,500 kg warhead, Mach 16 exo / Mach 8 atmospheric), Kheibar Shekan, Fattah hypersonic missiles, and drones. Targeted Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport, Haifa IAF centres, Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar), Al Dhafra Air Base (UAE). Explicitly framed as retaliation for Minab school strike. IRNA posted announcement on X.
• Wave 23 (20:00 UTC / 22:00 IST): No codename assigned. Advanced ballistic missiles (types pending confirmation) targeting Israel plus Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. IRGC stated these were "some of the world's most advanced missiles."
• Iranian state media heavily promoted Wave 22 as a qualitative escalation, emphasising the Khorramshahr-4 and Fattah capabilities.

Wave 21 — 03:30 UTC (05:30 IST)

• Codename: "Ya Mu'izz al-Mu'minin" (Arabic: يا معزّ المؤمنين)
• Weapons: Kheibar Shekan solid-fueled BMs with cluster warheads + suicide drone swarms
• Targets: Tel Aviv — designed to saturate multi-layered air defences
• IRGC claim: Cluster submunitions defeated Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow (unverified)
• Landings: Israel

Wave 22 — 11:30 UTC (13:30 IST)

• Codename: "Ya Hossein ibn Ali" (Arabic: يا حسين بن علي عليه السلام)
• Weapons: Khorramshahr-4 (~1,500 kg warhead, Mach 16 exo-atmospheric / Mach 8 atmospheric), Kheibar Shekan, Fattah hypersonic, drones
• Targets: Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion Airport, Haifa IAF centres, Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar), Al Dhafra Air Base (UAE)
• Motivation: Explicitly stated retaliation for Minab school strike
• Interception: Israeli military confirmed defence systems intercepting missiles. No injuries in Israel.
• Landings: Israel, Qatar, UAE

Wave 23 — 20:00 UTC (22:00 IST)

• Codename: None assigned
• Weapons: Advanced ballistic missiles (types pending confirmation); IRGC stated "some of the world's most advanced missiles"
• Targets: Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE
• Interception: Israeli military confirmed interceptions. Gulf state reports pending.
• Landings: Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE

• Pause broken: The 24-hour operational pause ended with three waves across the day, restoring the ~3.3 waves/day tempo established in the first 6 days of TP4.
• Qualitative escalation: Wave 22 represents the most significant qualitative escalation of TP4 with the introduction of Khorramshahr-4 (Iran's heaviest operational BM, ~1,500 kg warhead) and Fattah hypersonic missiles. These systems pose the greatest challenge to existing defence architectures.
• Khorramshahr-4 significance: At Mach 16 exo-atmospheric speed and ~1,500 kg warhead mass, the Khorramshahr-4 is designed to overwhelm terminal defence through sheer kinetic energy and warhead mass. Arrow-3 exo-atmospheric interception is the primary counter.
• Fattah hypersonic debut: The Fattah's maneuverable re-entry vehicle (MaRV) complicates interception at all layers. Its effectiveness in combat remains unverified.
• Geographic widening: Wave 23 simultaneously targeted six countries — the widest single-wave geographic footprint in any True Promise operation. This distributes coalition defence resources across multiple theaters.
• Ben Gurion Airport targeting: Wave 22's explicit targeting of Ben Gurion Airport represents critical infrastructure escalation, threatening Israel's primary international air link.
• Retaliation framing: The explicit "Minab school" retaliation framing of Wave 22 signals an action-reaction cycle that could sustain extended operations.

• Israel: Defence systems confirmed intercepting missiles across all three waves. No injuries reported. Ongoing UXO clearance from cluster munition impacts. Home Front Command issued shelter directives three times during the day.
• United States: CENTCOM assets at Al Udeid and Al Dhafra directly targeted in Wave 22. Defensive posture at maximum across Gulf installations.
• Gulf States: Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE all targeted in Wave 23. Extent of impacts and defensive actions pending confirmation.
• Iran: IRGC framed Wave 22 as retaliation for Minab school strike. State media emphasised Khorramshahr-4 and Fattah as qualitative leaps. No ceasefire or end-of-operations statement issued.
• International: Continued condemnation of cluster munition use. Ben Gurion Airport targeting drawing additional concern over civilian infrastructure escalation.

For interactive data and visualizations, see:

• Wave Timeline — All 23 waves in reverse chronological order
• Interactive Map — Launch sites, targets, and bases
• TP4 Data Table — Searchable wave records
• Analysis Charts — Timing, weapons, targets, escalation
• Daily Analysis Blog — Timestamped analysis with embedded charts

Selected charts (generated 2026-03-06, waves 1–23):